Boasting a market cap of $2.7 trillion, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) is a leading American technology company specializing in graphics processing units (GPUs), artificial intelligence (AI), and accelerated computing. Founded in 1993 and headquartered in Santa Clara, California, NVIDIA has transformed from a gaming graphics company into a dominant force in AI and data center technologies.

Shares of this chip giant have outperformed the broader market over the past year. NVDA has gained 26.1% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied nearly 10.6%. However, in 2025, NVDA stock is down 18.9%, compared to $SPX’s 5.3% fall on a YTD basis. 

Zooming in further, NVDA has surpassed the S&P Semiconductor SPDR’s (XSD) 14.1% drop over the past year and 22.3% decline this year.

NVIDIA has underperformed the broader market in 2025, due to a combination of high investor expectations, geopolitical risks, and increased competition. While the company continues to post strong earnings, its results have not significantly exceeded forecasts, leading to investor disappointment. U.S. export restrictions on AI chips to China have also hurt NVIDIA’s revenue prospects, alongside rising competition from firms like Huawei. 

On Apr. 30, NVDA shares fell 2.5% amid broader market weakness and concerns over economic data and key customer performance. U.S. GDP unexpectedly declined 0.3% in Q1, and consumer spending also slowed, pressuring tech valuations. Adding to Nvidia's challenges, major customer Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) slashed its Q3 revenue and earnings guidance, citing delayed customer platform decisions. This raised fears of softening demand for Nvidia’s AI chips.

For the current fiscal year, ending in January 2026, analysts expect NVDA’s EPS to grow 36.9% to $4.01 on a diluted basis. The company’s earnings surprise history is impressive. It beat the consensus estimate in each of the last four quarters.

Among the 42 analysts covering NVDA stock, the consensus is a “Strong Buy.” That’s based on 37 “Strong Buy” ratings, two “Moderate Buys,” and four “Holds.” 

This configuration has remained fairly stable over the past months.

On Apr. 25, Morgan Stanley (MS) lowered its price target on Nvidia to $160 from $162 but maintained an “Overweight” rating, citing strong GPU demand driven by a global shortage of inference chips for large language models. Despite macro and supply chain concerns, the firm dismissed the idea of an AI slowdown, noting rapid growth in demand. 

The mean price target of $166.10 represents a 52.5% premium to NVDA’s current price levels. The Street-high price target of $220 suggests an upside potential of 102%.